The Big 12 schedule serves up a huge test this weekend as UCF heads to Manhattan to face Kansas State. The Knights come in with confidence after a solid start under Scott Frost, while the Wildcats are stuck at 1–3 and fighting to keep their season alive. This one has all the ingredients of a momentum-shifting game, with quarterbacks Tayven Jackson and Avery Johnson front and center.
For UCF, the trip to Kansas State represents an opportunity to announce themselves in their Big 12 opener. For Kansas State, it feels like a must-win just to steady the program.
Kansas State Desperation Mode
Kansas State expected to contend this fall, but a rough 1–3 start has the team already in desperation mode. Chris Kleiman has pointed to discipline and execution, but the bigger issue is that the Wildcats have lacked an offensive identity. Quarterback Avery Johnson was billed as a dual-threat playmaker, yet his accuracy and decision-making have been uneven. At just 60 percent passing, he has not met the expectations many set for him in the offseason.
The injury to Dylan Edwards has only made things harder. He went down before ever taking an offensive snap in the opener and has been limited since. His brief return against Arizona was encouraging, but Kansas State still hasn’t found rhythm on offense. Edwards has to become a difference-maker if the Wildcats are going to climb out of this hole.
On defense, linebacker Austin Romaine has been asked to do a lot. Romaine has logged heavy snaps and held his own, but the defense overall has struggled to get off the field. Long, grinding drives have worn them down. That trend cannot continue against a UCF offense that is finding confidence.
UCF Emerging Under Frost
On the other side, UCF is starting to show signs of a program moving in the right direction. Coming off a 4–8 campaign, the Knights already look sharper under Scott Frost. Quarterback Tayven Jackson has taken control of the offense, pushing the ball downfield with confidence and establishing strong chemistry with wide receiver Dwayne Thomas Jr. Thomas is quickly becoming a go-to option, posting 12 catches for 148 yards and proving he can create explosive plays.
The biggest surprise has been UCF’s defense. Young players like Sincere Edwards have energized a unit that now ranks first in the Big 12 against the pass, holding opponents to just 117 yards per game. That ability to limit big plays through the air has given the Knights a chance to dictate tempo and stay in control.
The ground game is still inconsistent, with Myles Montgomery and Jaden Nixon searching for their best form. That has put even more pressure on Jackson to make plays with his arm, but so far he has been up to the challenge.
Quarterback Showdown
Everything points back to the quarterbacks. Tayven Jackson has been steady and efficient, making good decisions and creating big plays when needed. Avery Johnson still has the higher ceiling, but his performance has not matched the preseason hype. If Johnson cannot find his rhythm or use his legs to extend plays, UCF will have the clear advantage.
The Knights’ secondary will try to force Johnson into tight throws, while Kansas State hopes his mobility can finally open up the offense. If the Wildcats fail to unlock his dual-threat potential, this could be another long night.
Prediction and Stakes
Kansas State cannot afford another loss, especially at home. Dropping to 1–4 could trigger changes on the staff and set the program back even further. For UCF, this game is about making a statement that they belong at the top half of the Big 12 conversation. A win here would confirm what their start already suggests: this team is better than most thought.
Expect UCF’s defense to challenge Johnson all game, keeping him uncomfortable and limiting big plays. If Dylan Edwards is still limited, the Wildcats will struggle to find balance. On offense, Jackson and Thomas are capable of creating the sparks UCF needs to pull away late.
Final prediction: UCF 33, Kansas State 20. The Knights lean on their defense and a handful of explosive plays to secure a statement win in their Big 12 opener.
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